Tampa Bay Housing Market Update: Week of September 13, 2026

Sellers came back to the market in force during the week of September 13, with new listings up across all four counties, while mortgage rates climbed for the second straight week. Prices are holding steady: the median sale price across Tampa Bay over the last 30 days was $385,000, the same as a year ago. Buyers have roughly 20,600 homes to choose from and plenty of room to ask for a price adjustment.

This Week in Tampa Bay

• New listings: 1,481 (up from 1,306 the week before)
• Homes that went under contract: 977 (up from 956)
• Active listings: 20,599
• Months of supply: 4.8
• Price cuts: 2,385
• Median list price: $400,000
• Median sale price, last 30 days: $385,000 (unchanged from a year ago)
• Closed sales, last 30 days: 4,294, compared with 4,750 in the same stretch last year
• Median days to sell, last 30 days: 43
• Median days on market for homes still for sale: 82
• Average sale price as a share of original list price: 93.3%

Hillsborough is the quickest of the four counties, with a median of 36 days to sell and homes on average closing at 94.3% of their original asking price. The median sale price over the last 30 days was $392,000, within a whisker of the $394,000 posted a year ago, and supply sits at 4.7 months.

Pinellas has the deepest inventory at 5.2 months and the longest wait for homes still listed, a median of 93 days. Sellers there are giving up the most at the table, closing at 91.8% of original list, though the median sale price of $399,000 is up about 4% from $385,000 a year ago.

Pasco remains the most affordable county, with a median sale price of $340,000 over the last 30 days, down about 3% from $349,415 a year ago. At 4.6 months of supply and 44 days to sell, it tracks close to the regional middle.

Manatee has the tightest supply at 4.5 months, but homes take the longest to go under contract, a median of 55 days. Its median sale price of $415,500 is the highest in the region and up about 1% year over year.

Mortgage Rates and the Fed

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed average at 6.95% as of September 17, up from 6.76% a week earlier and up from 6.26% a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.26%, up from 6.09% the week before.

What moved. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The vote was unanimous, and it is the first increase since 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to inflation that is still too high, and said the Fed's job is to keep price increases in one part of the economy from spreading: "what we can do and will do is ensure that any change in relative prices don't broaden out."

The Fed does not set mortgage rates. Those track the 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed from 4.78% on September 4 to 5.01% on the day of the meeting, then eased to 4.94% the day after. That run-up is most of what pushed the weekly mortgage average higher, and it started before the Fed announced anything.

What the Fed expects next. Officials also published their projections. The median points to one more quarter-point increase before the end of 2026: 12 of 18 officials penciled in one more, four saw two more, and two saw none. They expect inflation to end the year at 3.7%, and they do not show it back at their 2% target until 2029.

What that means for rates here. Forecasts published earlier this year, including Fannie Mae's and the Mortgage Bankers Association's, had the 30-year below where it sits today, which is a fair warning about how much weight to put on any rate prediction. The honest answer is that nobody knows. Run your numbers at the rate a lender quotes you this week.

Here is what that looks like in dollars. On a $385,000 home with 20% down (a loan of $308,000), principal and interest at 6.95% runs about $2,039 a month. At last week's 6.76%, the same loan would have been about $2,000, and at last year's 6.26%, about $1,898. So this week's move costs roughly $39 a month, and the past year has added about $141 a month to the same purchase. Taxes and insurance are separate.

Housing News

National

• The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. The quarter-point increase on September 16 takes the benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4%, and officials' own projections show one more increase likely before the end of the year. For buyers, that argues against waiting for a cheaper rate. CNBC
• Builder confidence fell to a one-year low. The National Association of Home Builders index dropped three points to 32 in September, and 38% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August, while 66% offered incentives. Tampa Bay has plenty of new construction, and builder incentives often include paying to lower a buyer's rate. NAHB
• Existing home sales slipped again nationally. August sales ran at an annual pace of 3.98 million, down 2% from July, and the national supply of homes for sale reached 4.9 months, the highest in more than ten years. Tampa Bay is at 4.8 months, so our market is right in line with the country. National Association of Realtors

Tampa Bay

• Florida sales held steady in August while inventory tightened statewide. The statewide median price was $415,000 for single-family homes, up about 1% from a year ago, with closed sales down 1.5% and inventory down 13%. Florida Realtors' chief economist, Brad O'Connor, said the recent rise in rates "has been enough to slow home sales growth." Tampa Bay is running the other way on supply: our four counties added listings again this week. Florida Realtors
• Tampa led the country in luxury price growth. A Redfin report published September 4 put Tampa's luxury median sale price at $1.64 million for the three months ending in July, up 15.4% from a year earlier, second only to Miami. The top of the market is behaving differently from the middle, where prices are flat. Business Observer

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

Buyers: With 4.8 months of supply region wide, the market is balanced, and Pinellas at 5.2 months leans further your way. The 2,385 price cuts this week and an average sale at 93.3% of original list price say that asking prices are a starting point, not a final number. Rising rates cut both ways: they raise your payment, but they also thin out competition, so ask your lender to price a few scenarios before you shop. Ask your lender what a temporary or permanent rate buydown would cost, and whether a seller credit could pay for it. With 2,385 price cuts on the board this week, sellers are already negotiating.

Sellers: Homes that are priced right are still moving, with a median of 43 days to sell across the region and 36 days in Hillsborough. But the median home still sitting on the market has been listed 82 days, which is what happens when the first price is set above what buyers will pay. With new listings rising for a second week, your home is being compared side by side with more options.

Both: Prices are flat, not falling, at the regional level, so waiting for a broad discount has not paid off so far this year. Focus on your own county and price range, since Pasco at $340,000 and Manatee at $415,500 are different markets with different dynamics.

About these numbers: figures cover single-family homes, townhouses, villas and condos listed on Stellar MLS in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Manatee counties, and do not include manufactured or mobile homes. New listings count homes listed for the first time. Closings are added as agents report them, so the most recent week's counts rise over the following days. Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac's weekly averages.