Tampa Bay Housing Market Update: Week of September 27, 2026

Borrowing costs did the moving this week. The 30-year fixed rate climbed a quarter point to 7.28%, its highest reading of the year so far, while Tampa Bay sellers kept adding inventory and buyers kept negotiating. Prices across the four counties are still slightly ahead of last year, but homes are taking longer to sell and discounts off the original asking price are common.

This Week in Tampa Bay

Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Manatee counties combined, for September 27 through October 3, 2026:

• New listings: 1,506, up from 1,349 the week before
• Went under contract: 957, compared with 995 the week before
• Active listings: 20,571, with 4.9 months of supply
• Price cuts: 2,290
• Median list price: $402,990; median sale price over the last 30 days: $390,000
• Median sale price for the same 30 days last year: $382,000, so prices are up about 2%
• Closed sales over the last 30 days: 4,167, compared with 4,773 a year ago
• Median days to sell over the last 30 days: 46; median days on market for homes still listed: 82
• Average sale price as a share of original list price over the last 30 days: 93.1%

Hillsborough. The county moves fastest in the region, with a median 38 days to sell over the last 30 days and 4.8 months of supply. The 30-day median sale price of $399,900 is about 1% above last year, and sellers here held 94% of their original asking price on average.

Pinellas. Supply is the deepest in the region at 5.5 months, with 6,446 homes listed and 656 price cuts in a single week. Even so, the 30-day median sale price of $395,000 is about 5% above the $375,000 of a year ago, while the average sale came in at 91.6% of the original list price.

Pasco. The most affordable of the four counties, with a 30-day median sale price of $340,000, about 1% below last year's $343,950. Supply sits at 4.7 months and the median home took 50 days to sell.

Manatee. The highest prices in the region, with a 30-day median sale price of $430,000, about 5% above last year. Homes there take the longest to sell (a median of 55 days) and the average sale closed at 92.7% of the original asking price.

Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% on October 1, 2026, up from 7.03% the week before and 6.34% a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%, up from 6.42% a week earlier.

Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which was 5.24% on October 1, up from 5.18% a week earlier and 4.79% a month ago. That month-long climb in the bond market, not any single week's news, is what has pushed quoted mortgage rates up. The Federal Reserve's next scheduled decision is October 28, 2026.

On what comes next, the Fed's own projections released after its September 16, 2026 meeting point to a federal funds rate in the low 4% range in 2027, according to a Bondsavvy reading of the September dot plot. The Fed's policy rate is not the mortgage rate, and the two can move in different directions. We do not forecast rates, and neither should anyone quoting you one for next spring.

What that means in dollars: on the region's 30-day median sale price of $390,000 with 20% down, the loan is $312,000. At this week's 7.28%, principal and interest run about $2,135 a month. At last week's 7.03% it would have been about $2,082, and at last year's 6.34% about $1,939. So the same loan costs roughly $53 more than a week ago and about $195 more than a year ago. Property taxes, homeowners insurance and any association dues are separate and are paid on top of that. Our cost of waiting calculator puts a figure on what another move in rates does to the same house.

Housing News

National

A national price index put the Tampa metro slightly below last year. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, released September 29, showed U.S. home prices up 1.9% in the year to July, while the Tampa metro area came in 0.73% below where it was a year earlier. It does not contradict the $390,000 median above, because the two count different things. A median is the middle price of everything that sold in the last 30 days, so it can rise simply because buyers shifted toward more expensive homes, even if no single house gained value. Case-Shiller leaves price levels out of it and follows houses that have sold twice, comparing each one against its own earlier sale, which is closer to what an owner means when they ask what their house is worth now. Price against recent sales of houses like yours rather than against either regional number, which our guide to pricing a house against recent sales walks through address by address. S&P Global

Price cuts reached their highest September level since 2018. Realtor.com's September report, published September 30, put the share of listings with a price reduction at 20.8% nationally and active inventory above 1.16 million homes, within 9.1% of a normal pre-pandemic September for the first time in this recovery. Its national median list price was $419,250, down 1.4% from a year earlier and the eleventh consecutive month of year-over-year declines. The discounting Tampa Bay sellers are doing is part of a national pattern, not something particular to this market. Realtor.com

Contracts are falling apart more often. Compass reported pending home sales down 6.1% from a year earlier for the week ending September 25, with contract cancellations at 13%, the highest share since 2022. For a seller, that is an argument for taking inspection and appraisal items seriously rather than assuming a signed contract is the end of the work. Real Estate News

Purchase applications are running well below last year. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported on September 30 that total mortgage applications fell 6% in a week, with purchase applications down 4% from the week before and 14% below the same week a year ago. Its economist Joel Kan said rates at their highest in almost three years were "pushing borrowers to the sidelines." Fewer applications mean fewer competing buyers at any one listing, which is a large part of where the negotiating room in Tampa Bay is coming from. HousingWire

New home sales picked up in August while prices eased. Sales of newly built single-family homes ran at a 684,000 annual pace in August, well above what forecasters expected, and builders continued to trim prices and sweeten terms to move standing inventory. For Tampa Bay buyers, that is a reminder that a builder with finished homes may negotiate on price or rate buydowns in ways a resale seller cannot, though many newer communities here carry a CDD fee on top of the price. Inman

Tampa Bay

Florida regulators approved another round of homeowners insurance rate cuts. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation signed off on rate decreases from four more home insurers, while Citizens Property Insurance remains a large presence in the market. Insurance is part of the monthly payment for most buyers in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Manatee, so a quote from more than one carrier is worth the time before you write an offer. Insurance Journal

A 533-bed student housing project is going up near the University of Tampa. Construction is underway on a large purpose-built student housing building close to campus. Projects like this absorb renters who might otherwise compete for small condos and older houses near downtown Tampa, which matters to anyone selling that kind of home. Business Observer

Hillsborough County posted guidance on proposed property tax changes. The county tax collector's office is publishing plain-language material on proposed changes to Florida property taxes and how a bill is calculated. If you are buying, ask what the taxes will be after the sale rather than relying on the seller's current bill, because a sale resets the assessment and the homestead exemption and Save Our Homes cap start over for you. Hillsborough County Tax Collector

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

Buyers have choice and leverage, and a bigger payment. There are 20,571 homes on the market across the four counties and 4.9 months of supply, which is close to balanced, and 2,290 listings were reduced in a single week. The average sale over the last 30 days closed at 93.1% of its original asking price, so asking prices are a starting point.

Run the payment at today's rate, not last year's. The same $312,000 loan costs about $195 a month more than it did a year ago. If a rate buydown from a builder or a seller credit is on the table, compare it against a straight price reduction, because the two are worth different amounts over the years you plan to own.

Sellers should price to the current pace. The median home that sold in the last 30 days took 46 days, while the median home still sitting on the market has been listed 82 days. The gap between those two numbers is mostly a pricing story, and it is widest in Pinellas and Manatee, where supply is deepest and sale-to-list ratios are lowest. If a house has already sat through a listing without an offer, our property management side covers the options at that point, renting among them.

Watch the carrying costs, not just the price. With insurance rates in motion and property tax rules under discussion, the full monthly cost of a home can shift independently of what you pay for it. Getting insurance quotes and a tax estimate early keeps the surprise out of closing week.

About these numbers: figures cover single-family homes, townhouses, villas and condos listed on Stellar MLS in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Manatee counties, and do not include manufactured or mobile homes. New listings count homes listed for the first time. Closings are added as agents report them, so the most recent week's counts rise over the following days. Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac's weekly averages.